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Posted To: MBS CommentaryIn breaking news, it has been determined that today's NFP report was all an elaborate hoax that was never intended to have any effect on the markets beyond today. Or at least that's how the headline could read at the top of the list of "things that would not surprise us." What do I mean? Nothing more than this: After all the sturm and drang of AM volatility, the market continues in the exact same direction suggested by it's previous trends, which would have been for a reversal at 3.56 (yesterday) and a continuat
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ion of the rally into today depositing us somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.5... For MBS, just an extension of previous trends as well (yesterday we warned against perceiving the rally in MBS as an indication of reversing downtrends from the beginning of the week...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
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Posted To: MBS CommentaryTOMORROW: NFP at 830AM Wholesale Trade at 10AM Consumer Credit at 3pm Ok... Of course anything can happen tomorrow, and probably will, but at some point in the reasonably near future, a "quantum of solace" should show up to the party... Not talking about your buddy bringing over their "Bond collection," but rather, our "collection of Bond" metrics is suggesting it's almost time to call our much anticipated FLATTENER (short term yields and long term yields become more similar) in as a missing person.
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What does all that greek mean? If short term and long term yields move closer together, either the long end goes lower, the short end goes higher, or something in between... And although there's plenty of overhead room in short yields that can push the 10yr...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
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The Senate today voted unanimously Wednesday night to extend the $8,000 tax credit for home buyers beyond its scheduled November 30, 2009 expiration date. The credit would be available until April 30, 2010. Under the new legislation the credit will also now apply to home buyers who are buying their second or subsequent home. The credit currently applies only to first time home buyer. The Senate vote was 98 to 0 Under a compromise reached late last week, the tax credit for veteran homeowners will apply only to those who have lived in their current residence for at least five years. The credit f
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or these buyers will be capped at $6,500 while first time buyers will continue to receive $8,000. Income levels will be extended from the current limits of $75,000 for a single purchaser and $150,000 for...(read more)Forward this article via email:  Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in September, rose 6.1 percent to 110.1 from a reading of 103.8 in August, and is 21.2 percent higher than September 2008 when it stood at 90.9. The gain from a year ago is the largest annual increase on record, and the index is at the highest level since December 2006 when it was 112.8....(read more)
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For a packed week Tuesday is pretty light, but that hasn’t stopped equity futures from dropping sharply lower. Markets in Europe are the likely culprit as Germany’s DAX is down -1.8% and shares in France and London are each 2.2% lower.

Two hours before the opening bell, Dow futures are looking to open 97.00 points off at 9638, while S&P 500 futures are down 11.75 points at 1027.25....(read more)
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Mortgage bankers reported a substantial increase in per-loans profits during the second quarter of 2009 and an increase in loans, especially refinancings, that allowed them to spread their fixed costs over more units....(read more)
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Mortgage rates for the last week have remained relatively unchanged according to information released by Freddie Mac from its weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey and Fannie Mae's report on average yields....(read more)
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Upbeat earnings and the +3.5% GDP report helped US stocks jump around 2% yesterday, though the gains weren’t enough to wipe out losses from earlier in the week. The market is still down 2.9% from its annual high on October 19.

This morning Dow Futures are looking down 32.00 points at 9871.00, still a ways off from the 10k mark, and the S&P 500 looks to open 4.00 points lower at 1057.50.

Meanwhile, the Treasury yesterday completed its record $123 billion issuance of government-backed securities. Despite the growing deficit, each auction was “heavily oversubscribed, dra
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wing in a total of $372.4 billion in bids, more than three times the offered amount,” said the Wall Street Journal.

The US$ index is flat this morning following heavy losses yesterday as equities rallied. WTI crude oil is down 0.4% to $79.55, and spot gold is off $2 to $1045....(read more)
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The resolution would extend the present conventional loan limits for Fannie and Freddie through the 2010 calendar year at 125 percent of local median home sales prices, up to a maximum of $729,750 in high-cost areas.
The floor for FHA is $271,050; the floor for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac conforming loan limits is $417,000.

The resolution now goes to President Obama, and he is expected to sign it today or Saturday to avoid a government shutdown....(read more)
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The Federal Reserve today reported on their weekly purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the five trading days between October 22 and October 28, the Federal Reserve purchased a total of $21.906 billion agency MBS. In those five days the Federal Reserve sold $3.906 million agency MBS (dollar rolls) with the majority of roll transactions in FN 5.0s and FN 4.5s. After sales, the Fed's weekly net purchases totaled $18.00 billion.
...(read more)
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