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Posted To: MBS Commentary

On many occasions in 2013, I've referred to weakness as "seemingly inexplicable." This rarely has to do with the weakness defying explanation and more to do with the lack of overt, traditional, easily-understood explanations. In other words, there are general rules about how and why rates move and then there are exceptions. An uncommonly large amount of 2013 fell into the "exception" category. This was made all the more confusing by the fact that economic data often DID have the expected effect (strong data, rates higher, and vice versa),
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but it wasn't for the historically relevant reasons. Case in point: inflation data ceased being relevant. In the past, weak inflation reports tended to help rates, but CPI and PPI quickly became afterthoughts in 2013, joining the...(read more)

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Hiring was stronger than expected, pushing mortgage rates upward.
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Mortgage experts predict what will happen to rates over the next week -- and why.
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Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary The day and the week had potential. As far as today was concerned, it was yet another chance to test the incessantly firm resistance that's capped the entire week of gains. Technical resistance was the theme of the entire week, actually making an appearance in the title of Monday morning's Week Ahead: Limited Calendar, But Beware Technical Resistance . While "beware" sounds scarier than it needed to, given the calm movement this week, technical resistance turns out to have been exactly what the week was all about. We're no
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w heading out the door right in line with Monday morning's opening levels, having revisited the same resistance (and support) levels around the 23 and 50 percent retracements seen in the chart below. Pretty tame actually, but we should...(read more)

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Before a divorce settlement and retirement, it might be time for you to consolidate your debt.
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Posted To: MBS Commentary

With two trading days down so far this week, bond markets have shown their cards, or at least that's what they want us to think. The "cards" in question simply refer to the sideways range that's been intact since the Italian election drama at the beginning of last week. In the European hours of Tuesday's session, even headlines that suggested possible political traction and the potential presidential appointment of another technocratic government were NOT enough to motivate any harried moves ("another" refers to the late 2011
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unilateral appointment of technocrat Mario Monti by the Italian president. Monti is ostensibly part of the solution in Europe, and thus not popular with Italians and at least in part responsible for higher domestic interest rates). One would think that hints at another...(read more)

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Lack of down payment money need not be an obstacle to buying a home.
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Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary Earlier in the week, we posited that if FOMC Minutes didn't ruffle too many feathers, then next week's 2-day Bernanke Congressional Testimony would give the the follow-up and conclusion to the collective FOMC stance. Said stance seems staid. Alliteration aside, the minutes didn't surprise, and there's a decent enough chance that Bernanke won't either. In fact, it's entirely possible that the early January FOMC Minutes simply nudged sleepy markets, introducing the possibility that they might need to emerge from the QE-induc
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ed dream at some point in the future, but could continue mostly dozing for now. False Alarm? This leaves the door open for myriad other considerations in the coming two weeks. This isn't to say that Bernanke couldn't be a huge factor...(read more)

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Your mortgage debt was discharged after bankruptcy, but you need your name off the title.
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Posted To: MBS Commentary

MBS Live : MBS Afternoon Market Summary German economic sentiment data came in at the highest levels since May 2010... The House may pass legislation to extend the debt ceiling deadline until mid May 2013. Obama said he'd sign it... Earnings season continues to be bullish. Equities markets are flying high--the highest since late 2007. Despite all that, bond markets managed to hold in unchanged to slightly better territory today, though Treasuries out-classed MBS in the process. This could suggest that some extra caution was at
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work on Thursday, which is now helping bond markets do "better than they normally would" given the stock rally. The other more speculative way to view this is that bond markets are just staying more even-keeled until the House and Senate actually pass the potential legislation...(read more)

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